It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
